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Drake Maye Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 18

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins

Drake Maye Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-118/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 17.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game's spread implies an extreme throwing game script for the Patriots, who are giant -8.5-point underdogs.

The predictive model expects the Patriots as the 11th-least run-focused offense on the slate this week with a 40.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

This year, the porous Dolphins run defense has surrendered a staggering 129.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing offenses: the 8th-most in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the New England Patriots offensive blueprint to skew 4.4% more towards the passing attack than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels now calling the plays.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is predicted by the predictive model to see only 125.7 offensive plays run: the 3rd-lowest number among all games this week.

The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may drop.

The Dolphins linebackers project as the 6th-best LB corps in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.

More Drake Maye Player Props

Drake Maye Rushing YardsPlayer Prop Week 18

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins

Drake Maye Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 18