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Drake Maye

Drake Maye Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 3

New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers

 
 
 
Drake Maye Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 221.5 (-110/-124).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 221.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 221.5 @ -124.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Patriots boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
  • At the present time, the 7th-most pass-oriented team in the league (62.2% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the New England Patriots.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being predicted in this game) usually correlate with better passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and lower run volume.
  • Since the start of last season, the feeble Steelers defense has given up a monstrous 231.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing teams: the 10th-worst in the NFL.
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has shown weak efficiency since the start of last season, yielding 8.25 adjusted yards-per-target: the 5th-most in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The New England O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.

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