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Drake London

Drake London Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 8

Atlanta Falcons vs Miami Dolphins

 
 
 
Drake London Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+150/-168).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -132 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -168.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Falcons have run the 5th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a massive 61.2 plays per game.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • Drake London has been heavily involved in his team's offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 26.3% this year, which ranks in the 94th percentile among wideouts.
  • Drake London's 72.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the league: 96th percentile for WRs.
  • The Falcons O-line grades out as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Falcons are a giant 7-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
  • Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Falcons to pass on 56.1% of their downs: the 8th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
  • The leading projections forecast the Falcons to be the 6th-most run-heavy offense in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 48.6% red zone run rate.
  • The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 122.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 3rd-fewest in the league.

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