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Drake London

Drake London Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 16

Arizona Cardinals vs Atlanta Falcons

 
 
 
Drake London Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+134/-148).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +127 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +134.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the projections to have 135.3 total plays run: the highest number out of all the games this week.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being projected in this game) generally lead to increased passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and lower ground volume.
  • Drake London has compiled a massive 100.0 air yards per game this year: 93rd percentile when it comes to WRs.
  • Drake London's 75.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the NFL: 98th percentile for wide receivers.
  • The Atlanta O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all pass game statistics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Falcons to be the 10th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 54.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • The leading projections forecast the Falcons to be the 5th-most run-centric team in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 48.6% red zone run rate.
  • The projections expect Drake London to be a less important option in his team's passing attack near the end zone this week (32.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (40.0% in games he has played).
  • This year, the deficient Arizona Cardinals run defense has given up a colossal 1.07 TDs on the ground per game to opposing squads: the 10th-worst rate in football.
  • The Arizona defensive ends rank as the 4th-worst unit in football this year when it comes to defending the run.

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