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DK Metcalf

DK Metcalf Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 9

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts

 
 
 
DK Metcalf Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+112/-176).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -146 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -176.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Steelers are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
  • Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Steelers to pass on 61.4% of their opportunities: the 5th-greatest clip among all teams this week.
  • The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 39.9 pass attempts per game versus the Colts defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.
  • With an elite 22.2% Red Zone Target Share (85th percentile) this year, DK Metcalf ranks among the wideouts with the biggest workloads near the goal line in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Steelers have been the 10th-most run-oriented team in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) this year with a 48.1% red zone run rate.
  • The Steelers have called the fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 50.0 plays per game.
  • After totaling 99.0 air yards per game last year, DK Metcalf has significantly declined this year, now boasting 79.0 per game.

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