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DK Metcalf

DK Metcalf Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 8

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Green Bay Packers

 
 
 
DK Metcalf Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+168/-210).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +178 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +168.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 60.4% of their opportunities: the 8th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
  • The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may slide.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 42.5 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year: most in the league.
  • While DK Metcalf has earned 16.0% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a more important option in Pittsburgh's passing attack near the end zone in this week's game at 21.2%.
  • DK Metcalf has been in the 93rd percentile when it comes to wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive involvement) with an impressive 66.9 figure this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 49.0% rate of running the ball near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year, the 10th-most run-focused offense in the NFL in this setting has been the Steelers.
  • The predictive model expects this game to have the 3rd-fewest plays run among all games this week at 124.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a mere 49.3 plays per game.
  • After accruing 99.0 air yards per game last year, DK Metcalf has seen a big decline this year, now boasting 80.0 per game.
  • DK Metcalf's ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate falling off from 60.2% to 56.7%.

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