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DK Metcalf

DK Metcalf Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 7

Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers

 
 
 
DK Metcalf Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+140/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +158 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +140.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Steelers to call the 9th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (2-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while run volume may drop-off.
  • DK Metcalf has been a big part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 18.8% this year, which puts him in the 79th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
  • DK Metcalf's 68.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive usage) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 61.0.
  • With a stellar ratio of 0.67 per game through the air (96th percentile), DK Metcalf has been as one of the leading receiving touchdown-scorers in the league among wideouts this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Steelers are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
  • At the moment, the 8th-most run-focused offense in the NFL near the goal line (46.3% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Steelers.
  • The Steelers have called the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 49.6 plays per game.
  • After averaging 99.0 air yards per game last year, DK Metcalf has seen a big downtick this year, currently pacing 66.0 per game.
  • The Pittsburgh O-line ranks as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.

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