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DK Metcalf

DK Metcalf Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Minnesota Vikings

DK Metcalf Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+182/-192).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -225 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -192.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 60.3% of their plays: the 8th-highest frequency among all teams this week.

The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.

The Vikings defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (34.8 per game) since the start of last season.

DK Metcalf has been a big part of his team's pass game near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 17.5% since the start of last season, which places him in the 78th percentile among wide receivers.

When it comes to air yards, DK Metcalf grades out in the lofty 91st percentile among wideouts since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 90.0 per game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Our trusted projections expect the Steelers to be the 7th-most run-oriented team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 46.6% red zone run rate.

The model projects the Steelers to be the 4th-most sluggish paced defense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 29.28 seconds per snap.

DK Metcalf's 54.1% Adjusted Completion% this season shows a noteable drop-off in his receiving talent over last season's 60.2% rate.

Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 8th-lowest clip in the NFL vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season (69.1% Adjusted Completion%).

The Vikings safeties profile as the 4th-best safety corps in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

More DK Metcalf Player Props

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