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DK Metcalf

DK Metcalf Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 3

New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers

 
 
 
DK Metcalf Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+150/-158).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +156 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +150.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • DK Metcalf has been heavily involved in his team's pass game near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 16.4% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 75th percentile among wide receivers.
  • When talking about air yards, DK Metcalf grades out in the towering 92nd percentile among wide receivers since the start of last season, totaling a striking 91.0 per game.
  • DK Metcalf's 60.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive usage) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 84th percentile for wideouts.
  • DK Metcalf ranks in the 75th percentile among wide receivers as it relates to catching touchdowns since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 0.35 per game.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 57.1% rate of running the ball near the goal line (context-neutralized) this year, the 6th-most run-centric offense in the league in these situations has been the Pittsburgh Steelers.
  • In terms of a defense's impact on tempo, at 29.10 seconds per snap, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 4th-most sluggish in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time.
  • DK Metcalf's 53.3% Adjusted Completion% this year indicates a significant regression in his receiving proficiency over last year's 60.2% mark.
  • The New England Patriots defense has given up the 10th-fewest receiving TDs in the NFL to wide receivers: 0.95 per game since the start of last season.

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