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DK Metcalf

DK Metcalf Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 3

New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers

DK Metcalf Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+150/-158).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +156 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +150.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

DK Metcalf has been heavily involved in his team's pass game near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 16.4% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 75th percentile among wide receivers.

When talking about air yards, DK Metcalf grades out in the towering 92nd percentile among wide receivers since the start of last season, totaling a striking 91.0 per game.

DK Metcalf's 60.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive usage) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 84th percentile for wideouts.

DK Metcalf ranks in the 75th percentile among wide receivers as it relates to catching touchdowns since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 0.35 per game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 57.1% rate of running the ball near the goal line (context-neutralized) this year, the 6th-most run-centric offense in the league in these situations has been the Pittsburgh Steelers.

In terms of a defense's impact on tempo, at 29.10 seconds per snap, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 4th-most sluggish in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time.

DK Metcalf's 53.3% Adjusted Completion% this year indicates a significant regression in his receiving proficiency over last year's 60.2% mark.

The New England Patriots defense has given up the 10th-fewest receiving TDs in the NFL to wide receivers: 0.95 per game since the start of last season.

More DK Metcalf Player Props

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