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DK Metcalf

DK Metcalf Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 19

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Houston Texans

 
 
 
DK Metcalf Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+230/-240).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +225 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +230.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Steelers are a 3-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
  • Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 60.7% of their plays: the highest frequency among all teams this week.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to see 133.5 offensive plays run: the most on the slate this week.
  • DK Metcalf's 63.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the league leaders: 90th percentile for WRs.
  • When talking about pass protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the Steelers ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Steelers have run the fewest plays in football this year, averaging a measly 53.9 plays per game.
  • The Steelers are willing to include receivers in their rushing attack, and DK Metcalf has been given 1.4% of red zone carries this year (0th when it comes to wideouts).
  • DK Metcalf has accumulated significantly fewer air yards this year (74.0 per game) than he did last year (99.0 per game).
  • DK Metcalf has rushed for 0.06 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest marks in the NFL among wide receivers and tight ends (95th percentile).
  • This year, the formidable Houston Texans defense has conceded a measly 64.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the best rate in the league.

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