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DK Metcalf

DK Metcalf Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 16

Detroit Lions vs Pittsburgh Steelers

 
 
 
DK Metcalf Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+158/-170).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +154 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +158.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • An extreme passing game script is implied by the Steelers being a heavy -7.5-point underdog this week.
  • Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Steelers to pass on 65.3% of their downs: the 2nd-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
  • The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 133.9 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
  • The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.
  • DK Metcalf's 64.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 91st percentile for wide receivers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging just 51.3 plays per game.
  • The Steelers are willing to include receivers in their running game, and DK Metcalf has garnered 1.6% of red zone carries this year (0th among wideouts).
  • DK Metcalf has posted quite a few less air yards this year (73.0 per game) than he did last year (99.0 per game).
  • Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 5th-lowest level in football versus the Detroit Lions defense this year (66.0% Adjusted Completion%).

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