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DK Metcalf

DK Metcalf Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 15

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Miami Dolphins

 
 
 
DK Metcalf Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+142/-170).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -174 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -170.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • DK Metcalf slots into the 91st percentile among WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive volume) with a remarkable 65.9 mark this year.
  • As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the strong impact it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Steelers ranks as the 7th-best in the NFL this year.
  • DK Metcalf grades out in the 82nd percentile among wideouts as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging an impressive 0.36 per game.
  • Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL against the Dolphins defense this year (74.4% Adjusted Completion%).
  • This year, the stout Dolphins run defense has conceded a meager 0.77 rushing TDs per game to the opposing side: the 10th-smallest rate in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 3-point advantage, the Steelers are favored in this game, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their normal approach.
  • The predictive model expects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Steelers have run the fewest plays in football this year, totaling just 50.8 plays per game.
  • Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to lean on the pass against the Miami Dolphins, averaging the 8th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 31.5 per game) this year.
  • DK Metcalf, who has earned 1.8% of his team's rush attempts near the end zone this year (93rd percentile), is in the unique position (for a wideout) of being involved in the Steelers red zone rushing attack.

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