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DK Metcalf Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+194/-198).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +205 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +194.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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At a -3-point disadvantage, the Steelers are underdogs in this week's contest, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their typical approach.To the extent of a defense's influence on tempo, at 27.96 seconds per play, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 10th-fastest in football (adjusted for context) at the present time.DK Metcalf's 61.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive usage) ranks him among the best in the league: 87th percentile for wideouts.The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line ranks as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.With a terrific rate of 0.42 per game through the air (88th percentile), DK Metcalf rates as one of the leading receiving TD-scorers in football when it comes to wide receivers this year.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being predicted in this game) usually prompt decreased passing efficiency, reduced air volume, and higher rush volume.Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Bills, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in football (a mere 29.3 per game) this year.The Steelers are willing to include receivers in their ground game, and DK Metcalf has garnered 2.1% of red zone rush attempts this year (0th among wide receivers).After accruing 99.0 air yards per game last year, DK Metcalf has seen a big decrease this year, now pacing 71.0 per game.Opposing teams have completed passes at the 6th-lowest rate in the NFL versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year (66.7% Adjusted Completion%).
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