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DK Metcalf

DK Metcalf Receptions
Player Prop Week 8

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Green Bay Packers

 
 
 
DK Metcalf Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+134/-144).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -134 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -144.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 60.4% of their opportunities: the 8th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
  • The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may slide.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 42.5 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year: most in the league.
  • In this game, DK Metcalf is expected by the model to land in the 89th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 7.9 targets.
  • DK Metcalf has been in the 93rd percentile when it comes to wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive involvement) with an impressive 66.9 figure this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects this game to have the 3rd-fewest plays run among all games this week at 124.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a mere 49.3 plays per game.
  • DK Metcalf's 3.1 adjusted receptions per game this year reflects a noteable decrease in his receiving proficiency over last year's 4.3 rate.
  • DK Metcalf's ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate falling off from 60.2% to 56.7%.
  • As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Green Bay's collection of safeties has been outstanding this year, projecting as the 3rd-best in the league.

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