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DK Metcalf

DK Metcalf Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Minnesota Vikings

DK Metcalf Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-104/-123).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -165 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -104.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 60.3% of their plays: the 8th-highest frequency among all teams this week.

The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.

The Vikings defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (34.8 per game) since the start of last season.

With a sizeable 92.5% Route Participation% (91st percentile) since the start of last season, DK Metcalf ranks among the WRs with the highest volume in football.

Our trusted projections expect DK Metcalf to garner 8.2 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 88th percentile among WRs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Steelers to be the 4th-most sluggish paced defense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 29.28 seconds per snap.

DK Metcalf's 2.4 adjusted catches per game this year conveys a noteable regression in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 4.3 mark.

DK Metcalf's 54.1% Adjusted Completion% this season shows a noteable drop-off in his receiving talent over last season's 60.2% rate.

The Vikings safeties profile as the 4th-best safety corps in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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