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DK Metcalf

DK Metcalf Receptions
Player Prop Week 3

New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers

 
 
 
DK Metcalf Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-111/-109).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +107 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -111.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • DK Metcalf has run a route on 92.4% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, placing him in the 91st percentile when it comes to WRs.
  • The model projects DK Metcalf to garner 7.3 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 81st percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • DK Metcalf comes in as one of the leading wide receivers in the game since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 4.2 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 78th percentile.
  • The New England Patriots pass defense has been torched for the 8th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (67.9%) versus WRs since the start of last season (67.9%).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • In terms of a defense's impact on tempo, at 29.10 seconds per snap, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 4th-most sluggish in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time.
  • DK Metcalf's 53.3% Adjusted Completion% this year indicates a significant regression in his receiving proficiency over last year's 60.2% mark.

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