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DK Metcalf

DK Metcalf Receptions
Player Prop Week 10

Los Angeles Chargers vs Pittsburgh Steelers

 
 
 
DK Metcalf Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-122/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -121 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -122.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Steelers are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
  • Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 61.3% of their opportunities: the 5th-highest frequency among all teams this week.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically lead to better passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased pass volume, and lower ground volume.
  • DK Metcalf has run a route on 93.0% of his team's dropbacks this year, putting him in the 88th percentile when it comes to WRs.
  • The model projects DK Metcalf to accrue 7.3 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 81st percentile among wideouts.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The projections expect the Steelers to run the 7th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 63.4 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging just 50.8 plays per game.
  • Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to lean on the pass against the Chargers, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 31.1 per game) this year.
  • DK Metcalf's 2.9 adjusted catches per game this year indicates an impressive reduction in his receiving proficiency over last year's 4.3 rate.
  • This year, the tough Chargers defense has given up a paltry 58.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wideouts: the 2nd-lowest rate in the league.

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