DK Metcalf Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

NFL · Player Props

DK Metcalf

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receptions

Los Angeles Chargers vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 24, 2022 2:56 AM UTC

Analysis

DK Metcalf Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Seahawks are a 4.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 60.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects DK Metcalf to garner 9.8 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 96th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

The Seattle Seahawks have called the 4th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 53.3 plays per game.
DK Metcalf has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL, hauling in a mere 59.0% of passes thrown his way this year, grading out in the 24th percentile among WRs
The Seattle Seahawks have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone for it on 4th down a measly 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.