DK Metcalf Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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NFL · Player Props

DK Metcalf

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 24, 2022 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

DK Metcalf Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+126/-162).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -172 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ +126.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Seahawks are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 5th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 135.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 8th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects DK Metcalf to notch 11.6 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

The Seattle Seahawks have run the 6th-least plays in the league this year, totaling just 54.1 plays per game.
The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks project as the 5th-best CB corps in football this year in covering receivers.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the quickest in football since the start of last season.
The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.