DK Metcalf Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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DK Metcalf

NFL · Player Props

DK Metcalf

WR · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 11, 2025

Updated Nov 16, 2025 8:37 PM EST

Analysis

DK Metcalf Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 53.5 (-125/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 51.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 53.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects this game to see the highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
DK Metcalf has run a route on 93.4% of his team's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 91st percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
In this week's game, DK Metcalf is expected by our trusted projection set to finish in the 86th percentile among wide receivers with 7.4 targets.
When talking about pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Pittsburgh Steelers profiles as the 9th-best in the NFL this year.
This year, the shaky Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has allowed a whopping 67.4% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wideouts: the 10th-biggest rate in the league.

Favors Under

This week's spread implies a rushing game script for the Steelers, who are favored by 5.5 points.
The fewest plays in football have been called by the Steelers this year (a lowly 50.2 per game on average).
Windy weather conditions (like the 19-mph being forecasted in this game) typically lead to lessened passing efficiency, lower air volume, and increased ground volume.
DK Metcalf has posted far fewer air yards this season (74.0 per game) than he did last season (99.0 per game).
DK Metcalf has notched a lot fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (51.0) this season than he did last season (64.0).

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