DK Metcalf Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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DK Metcalf

NFL · Player Props

DK Metcalf

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 1, 2023 12:56 AM UTC

Analysis

DK Metcalf Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 61.5 (-125/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 56.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 61.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Seahawks being a massive -9.5-point underdog this week.
Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Seattle Seahawks to pass on 66.0% of their downs: the 2nd-greatest rate among all teams this week.
Right now, the 9th-fastest paced offense in football (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Seattle Seahawks.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The projections expect D.K. Metcalf to notch 9.2 targets in this week's game, on balance, placing him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to WRs.

Favors Under

Opposing offenses teams have been hesitant to lean on the pass against the Dallas Cowboys, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 30.5 per game) this year.
D.K. Metcalf's receiving reliability have declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 65.0% to 60.1%.
The Cowboys defense has yielded the 3rd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 118.0) versus wide receivers this year.
The Cowboys pass defense has displayed good efficiency against WRs this year, giving up 7.08 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-fewest in the NFL.
When it comes to linebackers in pass coverage, Dallas's group of LBs has been exceptional this year, grading out as the 3rd-best in football.

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