DK Metcalf Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

DK Metcalf

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving TD

Seattle Seahawks vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

DK Metcalf Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+220/-300).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
DK Metcalf has been a big part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 33.3% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.
DK Metcalf has accumulated a monstrous 90.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 91st percentile among wide receivers.
DK Metcalf's 65.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in football: 94th percentile for wide receivers.
DK Metcalf's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% jumping from 60.1% to 84.8%.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to run the 3rd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 59.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Seattle Seahawks have run the least plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a mere 54.7 plays per game.
The Seattle Seahawks offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Atlanta Falcons defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.