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DK Metcalf

DK Metcalf Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 3

Seattle Seahawks vs Atlanta Falcons

 
 
 
DK Metcalf Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+220/-300).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • DK Metcalf has been a big part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 33.3% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.
  • DK Metcalf has accumulated a monstrous 90.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 91st percentile among wide receivers.
  • DK Metcalf's 65.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in football: 94th percentile for wide receivers.
  • DK Metcalf's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% jumping from 60.1% to 84.8%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to run the 3rd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 59.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The Seattle Seahawks have run the least plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a mere 54.7 plays per game.
  • The Seattle Seahawks offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
  • The Atlanta Falcons defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
  • The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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