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DK Metcalf
NFL · Player Props
DK Metcalf
WR · Seattle Seahawks
Receiving TD
Seattle Seahawks vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 12, 2022 Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM UTC
NFL Props DK Metcalf Receiving TD

DK Metcalf Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+129/-176).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +147 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +129.

Favors Over
  • THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks offense to be the 10th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 27.52 seconds per play.
  • DK Metcalf has totaled far more air yards this season (102.0 per game) than he did last season (96.0 per game).
  • DK Metcalf's 69.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the league: 94th percentile for WRs.
  • The Seattle Seahawks O-line profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
  • DK Metcalf's receiving reliability have been refined this year, with his Completion% rising from 60.1% to 63.1%.
Favors Under
  • The Seahawks are a 4-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects DK Metcalf to be a less important option in his offense's passing game near the goal line this week (32.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (37.8% in games he has played).
  • The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on a measly 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
  • The Seattle Seahawks have risked going for it on 4th down a mere 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.
  • The Seattle Seahawks have used motion in their offense on 28.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (5th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.
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