DK Metcalf Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

NFL · Player Props

DK Metcalf

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving TD

Seattle Seahawks vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

DK Metcalf Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+129/-176).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +147 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +129.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks offense to be the 10th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 27.52 seconds per play.
DK Metcalf has totaled far more air yards this season (102.0 per game) than he did last season (96.0 per game).
DK Metcalf's 69.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the league: 94th percentile for WRs.
The Seattle Seahawks O-line profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
DK Metcalf's receiving reliability have been refined this year, with his Completion% rising from 60.1% to 63.1%.

Favors Under

The Seahawks are a 4-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects DK Metcalf to be a less important option in his offense's passing game near the goal line this week (32.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (37.8% in games he has played).
The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on a measly 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have risked going for it on 4th down a mere 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.
The Seattle Seahawks have used motion in their offense on 28.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (5th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.