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D.J. Moore

D.J. Moore Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 9

Cincinnati Bengals vs Chicago Bears

 
 
 
D.J. Moore Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+198/-220).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -210 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -220.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Bears to call the 6th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 68.0 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being forecasted in this game) typically mean better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and lower ground volume.
  • As it relates to pass protection (and the strong impact it has on all pass game metrics), the offensive line of the Chicago Bears profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL this year.
  • DJ Moore is positioned as one of the most reliable receivers in football, completing an excellent 74.5% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 81st percentile among wideouts.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Our trusted projections expect the Bears to be the 6th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 54.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Bears to be the 8th-most run-heavy offense in the NFL near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 47.1% red zone run rate.
  • The Bears are willing to include receivers in their ground game, and DJ Moore has garnered 2.4% of red zone rush attempts this year (0th among WRs).
  • After accruing 64.0 air yards per game last season, DJ Moore has undergone a big decline this season, now boasting 46.0 per game.
  • DJ Moore's 37.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 59.2.

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