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D.J. Moore

D.J. Moore Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 8

Baltimore Ravens vs Chicago Bears

 
 
 
D.J. Moore Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+275/-310).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -305 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -310.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while run volume may drop-off.
  • The Ravens defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 7th-most passes in the league (38.7 per game) this year.
  • Our trusted projections expect DJ Moore to be a more important option in his team's pass attack near the end zone in this week's game (17.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (12.5% in games he has played).
  • When talking about pocket protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Chicago Bears ranks as the 9th-best in football this year.
  • DJ Moore's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 71.8% to 76.3%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Chicago Bears to be the 8th-most run-focused offense in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 47.0% red zone run rate.
  • Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Bears are expected by the projections to run 66.3 plays on offense in this game: the 8th-highest number among all teams this week.
  • After totaling 64.0 air yards per game last season, DJ Moore has posted significant losses this season, now averaging 44.0 per game.
  • DJ Moore's 37.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 59.2.
  • Opposing offenses have run for the 2nd-most touchdowns in the league (1.50 per game) versus the Ravens defense this year.

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