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D.J. Moore Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+355/-380).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -600 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -380.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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At a -4-point disadvantage, the Bears are underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their usual approach.The projections expect this game to see the highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.6 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.The 10th-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Chicago Bears this year (a colossal 57.3 per game on average).When talking about protecting the passer (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Chicago Bears grades out as the 6th-best in football this year.With an excellent rate of 0.32 per game through the air (80th percentile), DJ Moore has been among the best receiving TD-scorers in football among wideouts this year.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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At the present time, the 8th-most run-focused team in the NFL near the end zone (47.1% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Bears.Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being called for in this game) generally mean lessened passing effectiveness, lower air attack volume, and increased rush volume.DJ Moore, who has been given 2.1% of his team's carries near the goal line this year (94th percentile), is in the unique position (for a wide receiver) of being involved in the Chicago red zone run game.DJ Moore has compiled far fewer air yards this year (58.0 per game) than he did last year (64.0 per game).DJ Moore's 37.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 59.2.
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