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D.J. Moore

D.J. Moore Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 17

San Francisco 49ers vs Chicago Bears

 
 
 
D.J. Moore Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+194/-230).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -225 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -230.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Bears are a 3.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
  • At just 28.00 seconds per snap, the Bears offense has been the 6th-quickest paced in the league (in a neutral context) this year.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being predicted in this game) usually cause increased passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and reduced ground volume.
  • The 49ers defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 10th-most passes in the league (35.8 per game) this year.
  • DJ Moore grades out in the 76th percentile among wide receivers this year with a colossal 22.2% of his offense's air yards accumulated.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The projections expect the Chicago Bears to be the 6th-most run-oriented offense in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 48.1% red zone run rate.
  • The Bears are willing to include receivers in their ground game, and DJ Moore has received 2.2% of red zone rush attempts this year (0th when it comes to wideouts).
  • DJ Moore's 39.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 59.2.
  • DJ Moore's 67.1% Adjusted Completion% this year shows a material decline in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 71.8% rate.
  • DJ Moore has rushed for 0.06 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest marks in the league when it comes to WRs and TEs (94th percentile).

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