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D.J. Moore

D.J. Moore Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 14

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears

 
 
 
D.J. Moore Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+245/-310).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -310 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -310.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Bears are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
  • The most plays in football have been run by the Chicago Bears this year (a massive 61.8 per game on average).
  • The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may drop.
  • In regards to pocket protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Bears profiles as the 3rd-best in the league this year.
  • This year, the anemic Green Bay Packers defense has been gouged for a staggering 72.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 10th-largest rate in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Bears to be the 6th-most run-centric offense in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 48.3% red zone run rate.
  • The predictive model expects this game to see the 4th-fewest plays run on the slate this week at 128.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Bears are willing to include receivers in their rushing attack, and DJ Moore has garnered 2.7% of red zone rush attempts this year (0th among wideouts).
  • DJ Moore has put up significantly fewer air yards this year (53.0 per game) than he did last year (64.0 per game).
  • DJ Moore's 37.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 59.2.

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