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D.J. Moore

D.J. Moore Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 13

Philadelphia Eagles vs Chicago Bears

 
 
 
D.J. Moore Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+385/-570).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -495 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -570.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • An extreme passing game script is implied by the Bears being an enormous -7-point underdog in this week's contest.
  • The projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.1 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Chicago Bears have run the 6th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a staggering 60.2 plays per game.
  • When talking about pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Bears grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Bears to be the 7th-most run-heavy team in the NFL near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 48.2% red zone run rate.
  • Windy weather conditions (like the 16-mph being projected in this game) generally mean decreased passing efficiency, reduced pass volume, and increased run volume.
  • The Bears are willing to include receivers in their run game, and DJ Moore has been given 2.9% of red zone carries this year (0th when it comes to wideouts).
  • DJ Moore has put up significantly fewer air yards this season (53.0 per game) than he did last season (64.0 per game).
  • DJ Moore's 37.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 59.2.

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