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D.J. Moore

D.J. Moore Receptions
Player Prop Week 9

Cincinnati Bengals vs Chicago Bears

 
 
 
D.J. Moore Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+105/-140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +120 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +105.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Bears to call the 6th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 68.1 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being forecasted in this game) typically mean better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and lower ground volume.
  • As it relates to pass protection (and the strong impact it has on all pass game metrics), the offensive line of the Chicago Bears profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL this year.
  • DJ Moore is positioned as one of the most reliable receivers in football, completing an excellent 74.5% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 81st percentile among wideouts.
  • The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers project as the 6th-worst LB corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Bears are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Bears to be the 4th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 54.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • DJ Moore's 16.7% Target Share this season shows a noteable regression in his pass game utilization over last season's 27.4% figure.
  • DJ Moore's receiving performance has tailed off this season, notching just 3.3 adjusted receptions compared to 5.8 last season.

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