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D.J. Moore

D.J. Moore Receptions
Player Prop Week 18

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions

 
 
 
D.J. Moore Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+165/-235).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -220 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -235.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Bears have a new play-caller this season in head coach Ben Johnson, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.1% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
  • Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Chicago Bears are predicted by the predictive model to call 68.8 offensive plays in this game: the most among all teams this week.
  • The highest number of plays in football have been run by the Bears this year (a monstrous 61.4 per game on average).
  • In this week's game, DJ Moore is anticipated by the projection model to position himself in the 75th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 6.0 targets.
  • As it relates to pass protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack stats), the offensive line of the Chicago Bears profiles as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 3-point advantage, the Bears are favored in this week's contest, implying more of a focus on rushing than their usual approach.
  • Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bears to pass on 53.8% of their chances: the 8th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
  • DJ Moore's 15.7% Target Share this year illustrates a significant diminishment in his passing game usage over last year's 27.4% rate.
  • DJ Moore's receiving performance has diminished this year, notching a measly 2.8 adjusted receptions vs 5.8 last year.
  • DJ Moore's ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate shrinking from 71.8% to 64.8%.

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