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D.J. Moore

D.J. Moore Receptions
Player Prop Week 13

Philadelphia Eagles vs Chicago Bears

 
 
 
D.J. Moore Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-190/+140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -190 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +140.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • An extreme passing game script is implied by the Bears being an enormous -7-point underdog in this week's contest.
  • The projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.1 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Chicago Bears have run the 6th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a staggering 60.2 plays per game.
  • When talking about pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Bears grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Bears rank as the 10th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (context-neutralized) this year with a 58.8% pass rate.
  • Windy weather conditions (like the 16-mph being projected in this game) generally mean decreased passing efficiency, reduced pass volume, and increased run volume.
  • DJ Moore has gone out for fewer passes this year (84.9% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last year (97.2%).
  • DJ Moore's 3.0 adjusted receptions per game this year signifies a significant decrease in his pass-catching talent over last year's 5.8 figure.
  • DJ Moore's ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 71.8% to 67.0%.

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