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D.J. Moore

D.J. Moore Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears

 
 
 
D.J. Moore Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+105/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -140.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This week's spread indicates a passing game script for the Bears, who are -3-point underdogs.
  • The model projects the Chicago Bears to call the 3rd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.6 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
  • The Bears have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 59.7 plays per game.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Bears profiles as the 4th-best in the league this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to pass too much against the Minnesota Vikings, totaling the 4th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 28.9 per game) this year.
  • DJ Moore's 85.9% Route Participation% this year indicates a noteable decrease in his air attack volume over last year's 97.2% rate.
  • DJ Moore's 3.0 adjusted receptions per game this season marks a material diminishment in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 5.8 rate.
  • DJ Moore's receiving reliability have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Catch% falling off from 71.8% to 68.5%.

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