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D.J. Moore

D.J. Moore Receptions
Player Prop Week 10

Chicago Bears vs New York Giants

 
 
 
D.J. Moore Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-119/-107).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +121 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -107.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see 136.6 plays on offense called: the most among all games this week.
  • The 6th-most plays in football have been called by the Chicago Bears this year (a staggering 59.8 per game on average).
  • The Giants defense has been something of pass funnel this year, causing opposing offenses to attempt the 9th-most passes in the league (36.0 per game) this year.
  • As it relates to pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Chicago Bears grades out as the 5th-best in the league this year.
  • DJ Moore has been one of the most sure-handed receivers in the league, completing a fantastic 73.2% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 77th percentile among WRs.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This week's spread implies a rushing game script for the Bears, who are favored by 4.5 points.
  • Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chicago Bears to pass on 51.5% of their chances: the lowest frequency on the slate this week.
  • Windy weather conditions (like the 20-mph being predicted in this game) typically cause decreased passing efficiency, lower air volume, and increased ground volume.
  • DJ Moore's 16.7% Target Rate this season represents a substantial regression in his pass game volume over last season's 27.4% figure.
  • DJ Moore's 3.0 adjusted receptions per game this year marks a noteable regression in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 5.8 figure.

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