D.J. Moore Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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D.J. Moore

NFL · Player Props

D.J. Moore

WR · Chicago Bears

Receptions

Washington Commanders vs Chicago Bears · Week 8, 2024

Updated Oct 27, 2024 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

D.J. Moore Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-155/+125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 61.9% rate of passing the ball (context-neutralized) this year, the 10th-most pass-centric team in football has been the Chicago Bears.
The Chicago Bears have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a massive 59.0 plays per game.
Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being called for in this game) typically cause better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.
This week, D.J. Moore is anticipated by our trusted projection set to place in the 89th percentile among wideouts with 7.9 targets.
In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Chicago Bears profiles as the 9th-best in football this year.

Favors Under

Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Chicago Bears are forecasted by the model to run just 62.8 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-fewest on the slate this week.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year: 4th-fewest in the NFL.
D.J. Moore's 58.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 76.9.
D.J. Moore's ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 73.2% to 68.7%.

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