D.J. Moore Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

D.J. Moore

WR · Chicago Bears

Receptions

Chicago Bears vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 4, 2024

Updated Sep 29, 2024 7:31 PM EST

Analysis

D.J. Moore Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-148/+112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ +125 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ +112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects this game to see the highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 133.3 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 60.3 plays per game.
In this contest, D.J. Moore is expected by the model to position himself in the 84th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 7.6 targets.
D.J. Moore comes in as one of the leading WRs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a remarkable 5.8 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 93rd percentile.
When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Los Angeles's group of CBs has been terrible since the start of last season, projecting as the worst in the league.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chicago Bears to pass on 55.8% of their opportunities: the 11th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
The weather forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
D.J. Moore's 55.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 76.9.
The Bears offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
D.J. Moore's 68.4% Adjusted Completion% this year conveys a remarkable diminishment in his receiving ability over last year's 73.2% rate.