D.J. Moore Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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D.J. Moore

NFL · Player Props

D.J. Moore

WR · Chicago Bears

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs Chicago Bears · Week 14, 2024

Updated Dec 8, 2024 9:31 PM EST

Analysis

D.J. Moore Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ +110 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Bears are underdogs in this week's game, suggesting more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan.
The predictive model expects the Bears to be the 10th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 61.9% pass rate.
The Chicago Bears have run the 4th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 60.8 plays per game.
In this contest, D.J. Moore is anticipated by the model to land in the 87th percentile when it comes to WRs with 8.3 targets.
The Chicago Bears O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all air attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

The projections expect this game to have the fewest plays run among all games this week at 123.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game versus the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 6th-fewest in football.
D.J. Moore's 59.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 76.9.
D.J. Moore's 65.9% Adjusted Completion% this year shows a remarkable diminishment in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 73.2% mark.
This year, the stout 49ers defense has surrendered a feeble 59.3% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 3rd-best rate in the league.

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