D.J. Moore Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

D.J. Moore

WR · Carolina Panthers

Receptions

Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

D.J. Moore Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-104/-127).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -127.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 127.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects D.J. Moore to accrue 7.7 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 90th percentile among wide receivers.
D.J. Moore has been a key part of his team's pass game, posting a Target Share of 28.4% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 97th percentile among wide receivers.
D.J. Moore has been among the leading pass-catching wide receivers since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 5.2 receptions per game while grading out in the 92nd percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line ranks as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
D.J. Moore has been among the least sure-handed receivers in the league, completing a mere 57.0% of passes thrown his way this year, grading out in the 23rd percentile among WRs
The New Orleans Saints linebackers profile as the 3rd-best collection of LBs in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line has allowed their QB a measly 2.39 seconds before getting pressured (4th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing game metrics across the board.