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D.J. Moore

D.J. Moore Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 9

Cincinnati Bengals vs Chicago Bears

 
 
 
D.J. Moore Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 51.5 (-118/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 52.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 51.5 @ -110.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Bears to call the 6th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 68.1 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being forecasted in this game) typically mean better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and lower ground volume.
  • As it relates to pass protection (and the strong impact it has on all pass game metrics), the offensive line of the Chicago Bears profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL this year.
  • DJ Moore is positioned as one of the most reliable receivers in football, completing an excellent 74.5% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 81st percentile among wideouts.
  • DJ Moore's pass-catching effectiveness has been refined this year, averaging 9.35 adjusted yards-per-target vs a mere 7.57 rate last year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Bears are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Bears to be the 4th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 54.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • DJ Moore's 16.7% Target Share this season shows a noteable regression in his pass game utilization over last season's 27.4% figure.
  • After accruing 64.0 air yards per game last season, DJ Moore has undergone a big decline this season, now boasting 46.0 per game.
  • DJ Moore's 41.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year shows an impressive decline in his receiving proficiency over last year's 61.0 mark.

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