D.J. Moore Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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D.J. Moore

NFL · Player Props

D.J. Moore

WR · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears · Week 13, 2024

Updated Nov 29, 2024 1:06 AM EST

Analysis

D.J. Moore Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 56.5 (-135/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 54.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 56.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's spread implies an extreme throwing game script for the Bears, who are heavy -9.5-point underdogs.
Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chicago Bears to pass on 63.3% of their plays: the 4th-highest clip among all teams this week.
The Bears have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 61.3 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Detroit Lions defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, enticing opposing QBs to attempt the 4th-most passes in football (37.9 per game) this year.

Favors Under

The model projects the Bears to call the 5th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
D.J. Moore has been much less involved in his offense's air attack this year (24.4% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (30.0%).
After accumulating 100.0 air yards per game last season, D.J. Moore has seen a big decline this season, now sitting at 60.0 per game.
D.J. Moore has accumulated substantially fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (54.0) this year than he did last year (77.0).
D.J. Moore's possession skills have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate shrinking from 73.2% to 69.4%.

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