D.J. Chark Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

D.J. Chark

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 1, 2024

Updated Sep 5, 2024 11:01 AM EST

Analysis

D.J. Chark Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-103/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 26.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 4th-most plays in the NFL last year, totaling a colossal 60.6 plays per game.
The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may drop.
With an exceptional 84.2% Route% (75th percentile) last year, D.J. Chark stands as one of the wide receivers with the biggest workloads in the NFL.
D.J. Chark has accounted for a monstrous 26.7% of his offense's air yards last year: 83rd percentile when it comes to WRs.
Last year, the feeble Raiders pass defense has been torched for a massive 69.6% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the 4th-biggest rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Chargers are a 3-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Chargers to pass on 55.4% of their downs: the 10th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by our trusted projection set to have just 125.8 plays on offense run: the 4th-lowest number out of all the games this week.
D.J. Chark profiles as one of the most unreliable receivers in the NFL, catching a mere 55.9% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, grading out in the 8th percentile among wideouts
D.J. Chark grades out as one of the worst wideouts in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging a lowly 2.26 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) last year while grading out in the 8th percentile.