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Diontae Johnson

Diontae Johnson Receptions
Player Prop Week 5

Chicago Bears vs Carolina Panthers

Diontae Johnson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+100/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -160 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -5.5-point disadvantage, the Panthers are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of an emphasis on throwing than their typical game plan.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by the projections to have 130.5 offensive plays run: the 2nd-most on the slate this week.

The predictive model expects Diontae Johnson to total 9.5 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 98th percentile among wide receivers.

Diontae Johnson has been much more involved in his offense's pass game this year (30.6% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (24.0%).

Diontae Johnson's 5.1 adjusted catches per game this season signifies a material improvement in his receiving prowess over last season's 4.1 rate.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

At the moment, the 8th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL (57.1% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Panthers.

The weather forecast calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

Diontae Johnson's 53.7% Adjusted Completion Rate this year conveys a meaningful drop-off in his receiving prowess over last year's 61.3% figure.

Since the start of last season, the formidable Chicago Bears defense has given up a mere 63.1% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing WRs: the 8th-lowest rate in football.

The Chicago cornerbacks rank as the 10th-best CB corps in football this year in covering receivers.

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