My Account Log Out

reorder

Diontae Johnson

Diontae Johnson Receptions
Player Prop Week 10

Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals

Diontae Johnson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-168/+128).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +128.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally correlate with better passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and reduced run volume.

The Bengals defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 10th-most passes in the league (34.6 per game) this year.

Diontae Johnson grades out as one of the best pass-catching WRs this year, averaging a stellar 4.4 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 82nd percentile.

When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Cincinnati's unit has been very bad this year, ranking as the 4th-worst in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's spread suggests a running game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 6 points.

The leading projections forecast the Ravens as the least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 48.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to have just 125.9 total plays called: the 5th-fewest among all games this week.

Our trusted projections expect Diontae Johnson to be much less involved in his offense's pass game this week (10.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (24.9% in games he has played).

Diontae Johnson's 53.5% Adjusted Catch% this year indicates a noteworthy drop-off in his pass-catching skills over last year's 61.3% figure.

More Diontae Johnson Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™