Diontae Johnson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Diontae Johnson

WR · Carolina Panthers

Receiving Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 4, 2024

Updated Sep 29, 2024 5:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Diontae Johnson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 62.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 59.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 62.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -5-point disadvantage, the Panthers are underdogs this week, suggesting more of an emphasis on throwing than their typical game plan.
The Carolina Panthers have called the 6th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 60.0 plays per game.
In this week's contest, Diontae Johnson is predicted by the projections to position himself in the 94th percentile when it comes to WRs with 8.9 targets.
With an exceptional 25.0% Target Rate (90th percentile) since the start of last season, Diontae Johnson rates among the wideouts with the most usage in football.
Diontae Johnson has totaled a whopping 84.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 88th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

At the present time, the 8th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL (57.6% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Carolina Panthers.
Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Carolina Panthers are expected by our trusted projection set to call just 61.3 total plays in this contest: the 4th-fewest on the slate this week.
Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to lean on the pass against the Bengals, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 31.7 per game) since the start of last season.
In regards to pocket protection (and the effect it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Panthers grades out as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season.
Diontae Johnson's 52.8% Adjusted Completion% this season conveys a noteworthy regression in his receiving proficiency over last season's 61.3% mark.