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Diontae Johnson

Diontae Johnson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 10

Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals

Diontae Johnson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-125/-103).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 21.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 20.5 @ -103.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally correlate with better passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and reduced run volume.

The Bengals defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 10th-most passes in the league (34.6 per game) this year.

With a terrific 52.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (78th percentile) this year, Diontae Johnson stands as one of the leading pass-catching WRs in the NFL.

When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Cincinnati's unit has been very bad this year, ranking as the 4th-worst in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's spread suggests a running game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 6 points.

The leading projections forecast the Ravens as the least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 48.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to have just 125.9 total plays called: the 5th-fewest among all games this week.

Our trusted projections expect Diontae Johnson to be much less involved in his offense's pass game this week (10.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (24.9% in games he has played).

After accumulating 86.0 air yards per game last year, Diontae Johnson has significantly declined this year, currently pacing 75.0 per game.

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