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Diontae Johnson

Diontae Johnson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 1

New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers

Diontae Johnson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 59.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 52.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 59.5 @ +110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -5-point disadvantage, the Panthers are underdogs this week, indicating more of a focus on throwing than their normal approach.

The projections expect this game to see the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.3 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.

The Panthers have run the 2nd-most plays in the league last year, totaling a colossal 61.2 plays per game.

The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.

The model projects Diontae Johnson to accumulate 8.3 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to wideouts.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Our trusted projections expect the Carolina Panthers to be the 2nd-least pass-focused team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 56.7% pass rate.

The Carolina O-line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the NFL last year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

The New Orleans Saints pass defense has allowed the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (59%) vs. WRs last year (59.0%).

As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, New Orleans's safety corps has been terrific last year, ranking as the 4th-best in the NFL.

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