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DeVonta Smith

DeVonta Smith Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 6

New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles

 
 
 
DeVonta Smith Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+235/-260).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -275 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -260.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game versus the Giants defense this year: 4th-most in football.
  • When talking about air yards, DeVonta Smith ranks in the towering 75th percentile among WRs this year, accumulating a striking 66.0 per game.
  • DeVonta Smith has been one of the most reliable receivers in football, catching an exceptional 82.6% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 95th percentile among WRs.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 7.5-point advantage, the Eagles are a huge favorite in this week's game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on rushing than their standard approach.
  • The predictive model expects the Eagles as the least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 50.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • The projections expect the Eagles to be the most run-heavy team in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 53.2% red zone run rate.
  • Right now, the 7th-slowest paced offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) according to the model is the Eagles.
  • While DeVonta Smith has garnered 30.8% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a much smaller piece of Philadelphia's offense near the goal line in this week's contest at 24.5%.

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