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DeVonta Smith

DeVonta Smith Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 5

Philadelphia Eagles vs Denver Broncos

DeVonta Smith Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+240/-300).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -300 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -300.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Eagles are forecasted by the projections to call 65.6 plays on offense in this contest: the 6th-most on the slate this week.

The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and lower rush volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

The Denver Broncos defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, leading opposing QBs to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (38.2 per game) this year.

DeVonta Smith has been in the 90th percentile among wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive usage) with a massive 63.1 mark since the start of last season.

DeVonta Smith's sure-handedness have gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 80.8% to 84.5%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Eagles are a 4-point favorite in this game, indicating a running game script.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Eagles to pass on 50.8% of their downs: the 2nd-lowest rate among all teams this week.

The projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles to be the most run-heavy team in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 53.4% red zone run rate.

The projections expect DeVonta Smith to be a much smaller piece of his team's pass attack near the end zone in this week's contest (22.2% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (27.3% in games he has played).

After accruing 66.0 air yards per game last year, DeVonta Smith has regressed heavily this year, currently boasting 51.0 per game.

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