My Account Log Out

reorder

DeVonta Smith

DeVonta Smith Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Philadelphia Eagles

DeVonta Smith Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+245/-305).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -310 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -305.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Philadelphia Eagles offensive strategy to skew 2.8% more towards the passing attack than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo now calling the plays.

The 4th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Philadelphia Eagles since the start of last season (a staggering 59.4 per game on average).

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has been a prominent pass funnel since the start of last season, tempting opposing offenses to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (37.4 per game) since the start of last season.

When talking about air yards, DeVonta Smith ranks in the towering 78th percentile among wide receivers since the start of last season, accumulating an astounding 65.0 per game.

DeVonta Smith's 65.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive volume) ranks him among the league leaders: 93rd percentile for WRs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Eagles are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a running game script.

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Eagles to pass on 51.0% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest rate among all teams this week.

The model projects this game to see the fewest plays run among all games this week at 122.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The leading projections forecast DeVonta Smith to be much less involved in his team's passing attack near the goal line this week (23.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (33.3% in games he has played).

The Eagles offensive line grades out as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.

More DeVonta Smith Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™