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DeVonta Smith

DeVonta Smith Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 3

Philadelphia Eagles vs Los Angeles Rams

 
 
 
DeVonta Smith Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+250/-355).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -265 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -355.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Philadelphia Eagles feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
  • The projections expect the Eagles to run the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.2 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
  • The Eagles have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 59.5 plays per game.
  • With a remarkable 25.0% Red Zone Target Share (89th percentile) since the start of last season, DeVonta Smith ranks as one of the wideouts with the highest volume near the goal line in the NFL.
  • When talking about air yards, DeVonta Smith grades out in the towering 76th percentile among wideouts since the start of last season, accumulating a whopping 64.0 per game.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • A running game script is indicated by the Eagles being a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game.
  • Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Philadelphia Eagles to pass on 49.8% of their chances: the lowest clip among all teams this week.
  • Since the start of last season, the daunting Rams defense has allowed a paltry 60.5% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 2nd-smallest rate in football.
  • The Rams cornerbacks rank as the 3rd-best unit in football since the start of last season in defending receivers.

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